This “dry-run” campaign to get operations set up and warm myself up to debates met my expectations, with a 5.7% vote across the county (pdf) with literally no campaigning or serious fundraising in 2021 – no mailers, no ads, no door-knocking.

Why am I optimistic about 5.7%? Data. I love looking through the numbers. Not only cost analysis (more on that in a later newsletter), but also precinct vote results.

Here are the really interesting pieces of information: as a strong “Missing Middle” and pro-housing candidate, I overperformed in neighborhoods that are often seen as resistant to expanded housing development: 8.35% in Lyon Village, 7.32% in Westover, and 6.82% in Lyon Park.

I performed very well in my home neighborhood with 10.45%, 9.68%, and 9.26% at Central, Ballston, and Virginia Square, respectively.

And despite going up against an incumbent candidate whose strength is along Columbia Pike, I also overperformed in many precincts of that corridor: 9.02% at Arlington/Douglas Park (beating out Cantwell who more than doubled me in the county-wide results), 7.67% in Arlington View, and 6.71% in Barcroft.

So yes, there’s a clear hunger for a strong candidate that can champion fiscal responsibility and government transparency with strong progressive values in criminal justice reform and pro-housing development policies. Are you ready for 2022/2023?