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Arlington Analytics released a report projecting spending growth and resulting real estate tax increases to 2031 for Arlington County. Highlights of the excellent work of Jon Huntley, PhD (and team?): Arlington collects ~$800M (million) per year from residential (single family home, townhouse, condo…) and commercial (office, retail, hotel, apartment complexes…)

Real estate taxes, split roughly evenly between the two. Real estate taxes account for half of all revenue for the county, but it’s the easiest to use to close budget gaps, so property owners should expect to bear the brunt of spending increases.
Projected assessment increases by type: Single family homes 3.5%; duplexes 4.6%; condos 2.3%; offices at 2.7%; hotels 2.5% after COVID recovery; and apartment complexes 3.5-5.5%. Assessments for residential property has increased twice as fast as inflation (3.5% to 1.7%), resulting in avg of 20%(!!) tax burden increase for homeowners. In the end, the report projects $255M in additional real estate taxes in 2031 (for $1,097M in total).
At current rates, ~$100M of that will come from residential owners, with remaining ~$155M coming from commercial owners. This will be a huge issue for Small Business owners, and why they will need major relief starting now, which is an LPNOVA policy priority.
Factor that can change this projection: higher or lower APS enrollment by 1,000 students since APS gets a set share of county revenue based on enrollment. No current data available on effects of COVID shutdowns (switching to homeschooling, private schools, pods, etc.)

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